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Originally Posted by JoeliusZ28
link? proof?
unless you have some solid info, i plain disagree. GM knows how well the new mustang is doing and have vowed not to cancel upcoming cars since the whole bankruptcy thing. I think were gonna know for sure at this years auto show :smt045
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Umm...
There have been canceled progams - the zeta platform is one of them.
The GMT 900 is on pull-ahead; they're launching it 6 months ahead of schedule, which will most likely result in more defects than usual - defects which will be examined under the microscope of mass media.
As of a month ago, there was a 330 day supply of SSR's. Dealers are being forced to take them.
As for the comments from Rick Wagoner, they are direct quotes from the local newspapers. Do a freep search or a det news search; you'll find them in no time.
I make my living trying to figure out where the auto industry is going next, and it scares the crap outta me when the acknowledged industry experts agree the situation is difficult and complex, and they generally 'hope' it won't end in banckruptcy. According to Friday's Free Press, GM's cash cushion will last two years - that's less than half of my 1st quarter estimate of five. When - not if - the next wave of intros is met with average sales, GM will be forced into rapid redesign of product - thus killing the cash reserve.
It's as simple as this:
a) Legacy costs (healthcare and pensions) are upside-down by a factor of 2.5:1. That's two and a half retirees for every GM employee - not enough set-aside to fund pensions and healthcare costs.
b) NOTHING GM has done has halted the erosion of market share - didja know they had 55% of the market at one point? They have abdicated literally half of their US market share.
c) Their core NA product are trucks and SUV's - SUV sales are off 10%, and Nissan, Toyota, and Honda are hitting the full-size truck market hard.
d) The current UAW/GM labor agreement will not allow GM to shutter ANY plants until 2007 - two years off.
NetNet: they can do nothing other than pull product ahead and 'hope' for the best.
GM is upside-down big time and has painted themselves into a very dark corner. Of the three US-based auto companies (if you accept occupied chrysler as US-based) GM has the largest infrastructure and legacy cost base; saying they will sell their way out of their problems is like a 4th quarter hail mary pass from 60 yards out - sure it happens sometimes, but the odds are highly stacked against it. They would have to take a 30% share (5% of the total market) of the import market back to be healthy - and I can't see that happening - period.
I'm a third generation car guy - my grandfather worked at Hudson Motor Car Co. and Pop worked at what would have been called a Tier One supplier at the time. Seeing them go down is NOT on my list of things-to-do; but this is exactly what I told pop the other day:
'looks like you may live to see the end of the US auto industry.'